生物学杂志

生物学杂志 ›› 2020, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (3): 62-.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.2095-1736.2020.03.062

• 研究报告 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于DNDC模型评估白洋淀芦苇湿地N2 O排放特征

  

  1. 1. 清华大学 地球系统科学系 地球系统数值模拟教育部重点实验室, 北京 100084；2. 全球变化与中国绿色发展协同创新中心, 北京 100875；3. 深圳大学 海岸带地理环境监测国家测绘地理信息局重点实验室， 深圳 518060
  • 出版日期:2020-06-18 发布日期:2020-06-10
  • 通讯作者: 喻朝庆，副教授，博士生导师，研究方向为地球系统模式与农业生态学，E-mail: chaoqingyu@tsinghua.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:冯钊，硕士研究生，研究方向为农业生态学与模型分析，E-mail: fz16@tsinghua.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学重点研发计划基金（2017YFA0603602）

Estimation features of nitrous oxide in Phragmites australis-dominated wetland of Baiyangdian Lake by DNDC model

  1. 1. Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System modeling, Department of Earth System Science,Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084; 2. Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing 100875;3. Key Laboratory for Geo-Environmental Monitoring of Coastal Zone of the National Administration of Surveying, Mapping and Geo-Information, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, China
  • Online:2020-06-18 Published:2020-06-10

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摘要： 湿地是一个重要的N2O排放源。气候变化改变硝化与反硝化作用强度影响土壤N2O排放。为探究湿地芦苇在2018—2100年中N2O的排放特征，以中国华北白洋淀湿地芦苇为研究对象，借助DNDC（反硝化-分解）模型和IPCC（政府间气候变化专门委员会）的6种模式及RCP 3种情景模拟芦苇的生长过程。研究表明，多点位验证模拟值和观测值之间Pearson相关系数r为0.723，决定系数R2为0.522，均方根误差RMSE为76.75 μg/m2 · d。在RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下，未来N2O排放量均未出现显著线性变化特征，年排放总量变化范围分别为0.69～23.84 t和0.59～31.92 t。对比RCP8.5情景，N2O排放在CanEMS2和MIROC5 2种模式中出现明显递增趋势，排放总量的变化范围为0.49～38.82 t。在2018—2100年的时间梯度中N2O排放未表现出明显递增或递减变化趋势。多模式多情景下,N2O排放量总体随时间变化不明显，且无线性、周期性等变化，但受温度和降雨变化明显。温度适中、降雨量丰富的年份易出现N2O排放极大值。

关键词: 芦苇, 湿地, N2O, DNDC（反硝化分解）模型, RCP

Abstract: Wetland is a major source of nitrous oxide. Climate changes can influence N2O emission. To explore its emission′s characteristics of wetland ecosystem during the growth of Phragmites australis from 2018 to 2100, three RCP (Representative concentration pathway) scenarios in six models selected from IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change) were used by DNDC (Denitrification decomposition) model. The results showed that multipoint historical position experiments present a clear relationship between observed values and simulated ones, and correlation coefficient r is 0.723, while determination coefficient (R2) is 0.522 with RMS(Root mean square error) of 76.75 μg/m2 · d. No obvious and regular fluctuations are found in the condition of RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, whose annual nitrous oxide emission range from 0.69-23.84 and 0.59-31.92 simulated by DNDC in the future. Compared to RCP 8.5 scenario, N2O emission increases significantly in both CanEMS2 and MIROC5 with year total emission from 0.49-38.82, respectively. N2O emission does not show a significant increasing or decreasing trend in the three sections divided in the period of 2008-2100. Under multi-modes and multi-scenarios, the N2O emission has no significant periodic changes but it is affected obviously by precipitation and temperature. The maximum N2O emission is likely to occur during the year with moderate temperature and abundant precipitation.

Key words: reed, wetland, nitrous oxide, DNDC (denitrification-decomposition) model, RCP

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