关键词: 绒鼠属, MaxEnt模型, 气候变化, 适生区分布, 生境质心

Abstract: In the present study, an optimized maximum entropy model （MaxEnt） was used to predict both the potential habitat distribution and its dynamics under future climate scenarios across different greenhouse gas emission modes for the genusEothenomys. The findings indicated that the geographic distribution ofEothenomysprimarily encompasses regions within Yunnan, Sichuan, Chongqing, Guizhou, Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, and southeastern Xizang in China. Moreover, areas exhibiting high suitability forEothenomyshabitat were predominantly clustered in the northern Yunnan, southern Sichuan, northwestern Guizhou and southeastern Xizang regions. Warmest-quarter precipitation was the key climatic variable affecting the distribution ofEothenomys. The distribution ofEothenomysshowed irregular patterns across different greenhouse gas emission patterns. Although the total area of predicted distribution zones ofEothenomysin the 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s showed minimal changes, high-suitability habitats decreased accompanied by slight shifts in distribution centers, primarily concentrated in the eastern region at the border of Yunnan and Sichuan. In the future, someEothenomyspopulations might migrate to higher altitudes, while others could expand into eastern China and coastal areas. The distribution areas ofEothenomysexhibited significant altitude differences and severe habitat fragmentation, highlighting the importance of enhanced monitoring and protection of the species to preserve local ecological diversity, and the need of implementing measures to prevent rodent damage.

Key words: Eothenomys, MaxEnt modelling, climate change, suitable habitat distribution, habitat centroid